Less than two months before Election Day, a new NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group Texas Voter Poll shows likely voters prefer Democrat State Rep. James Talarico over Republican State Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate in Texas, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat challenger State Rep. Gina Hinojosa by a wider margin.
The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, interviewed 625 registered Texas voters who said they are likely to vote. It took place by phone from Sept. 8 to Sept. 10.
Of those surveyed, 24% said the economy and jobs were the biggest influence on how they’ll vote, while 23% said inflation and the cost of living had the biggest impact.
U.S. Senate race
In the U.S. Senate race, 46% of respondents statewide said they would vote for Talarico if the election were held that day, compared to 43% for Paxton. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%. Of the remaining respondents, 8% were undecided and 3% indicated they supported Libertarian Ted Brown.
Of Independent voters surveyed, 13% said they remain undecided, while 51% would vote for Talarico and 30% support Paxton.
Broken down by gender, 52% of women surveyed said they would support Talarico, and 36% planned to vote for Paxton. Paxton led among men, 51% to 39%.
By race, 54% of Paxton supporters identified as white, compared with 36% Hispanic and 10% Black. Among Black respondents, 84% supported Talarico, compared with 54% of Hispanic respondents and 36% of white respondents. Of the undecided voters, 9% were Hispanic, 7% were white and 3% were Black.
The race is evenly split in Dallas-Fort Worth, with each candidate getting 45% of the prospective vote. It’s a similar story in the Houston Metro, with Talarico carrying a slight edge. His strongest support comes from Central Texas and South Texas, where more than half of those surveyed living in those areas plan to vote for him. More than half of the respondents in East Texas and West Texas plan to vote for Paxton.
Texas governor’s race
Gov. Greg Abbott leads with support from 48% of the likely voters interviewed for the poll. Democrat State Rep. Gina Hinojosa had support from 41%; 8% remained undecided; 2% backed write-in candidate Jenn Mack Raphoon; and Libertarian Pat Dixon had 1% support.
Of independent voters surveyed, 16% remain undecided on their choice for governor, while 41% supported Hinojosa and 38% supported Abbott.
Women appear split between the top two candidates, with 46% of respondents indicating they would support Hinojosa and 44% indicating support for Abbott. Abbott leads among men with 54% compared to Hinojosa’s 36%.
Poll demographics
According to Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, 36% of those surveyed identified themselves as Republican, 36% as Independent or Other, and 28% as Democrat.
Respondents were 28% age 65 or older, 26% ages 50-64, 25% ages 35-49, 19% ages 18-34, and 1% refused to provide an age.
Most respondents, 52%, identified as women, compared with 47% of men, while 1% identified as other.
Regarding race or ethnicity, 56% identified as white, 27% as Hispanic/Latino, 11% as Black, 5% as other, and 1% refused to share.
For location, 26% said they lived in Dallas-Fort Worth, 23% in the Houston area, 16% in South Texas, 14% in West Texas, 13% in Central Texas, and 7% in East Texas.
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